Tales from the Pitch

Understanding the Goal Kick

a MoneyGuild article

Goal kicks happen whenever a goal is scored during a game of Guild Ball. It is how the ball is returned to play. it presents an opportunity for setting up a snap back goal, putting the ball somewhere safe away from your opponent, or potentially a chance for things to go horribly wrong and allow your opponent to make another quick goal. One important question that needs to be answered to assess the risk involved is where is it best to play the kick so that it lands on your model.

Finding the best goal kick location

To find the best position of the ball relative to your target model we are going to use a method called Monte Carlo. We will simulate goal kicks and keep track of when the ball successfully is snapped by the target model. Specifically our procedure will be the following steps:

  1. Randomly place a model between six inches to left or right of the ball and up to six inches ahead of the ball.
  2. Perform a kick scatter of the ball
  3. If the final position of the ball is within one inch of the model, record the target model's position and that the kick was successfully snapped.

If we perform the above procedure many times over (in this case 10 million) we can generate a heat map and identify the most likely position to receive the ball on a goal kick.

Heat map of successful goal kick locations

Looking at this heat map we can see the best place to place the ball is approximately 2.5 inches to the left or right of our target model, and approximately 3 inches behind it. In this case we are measuring from the center of the ball to the center of the model rather than edge to edge as usual in Guild Ball.

So how likely are we to get the ball onto the target model? We can reuse the same procedure to estimate the likelihood. We simply replace the random positioning of the target model with the fixed position estimated above. Doing so we find out we successfully place the ball on our target model approximately 33% of the time.

So, in summary, the best place to place the ball relative to your target is 2.5 inches to the left or right, and 3 inches behind them, and roughly 33% of the time it will land on your target. With this we can now decide on when we want to kick towards our model, or possibly kick the ball away somewhere else.

Permalink to this article


 all  WTC (9)  WTC announcements (5)  administration (3)  alchemists (2)  blacksmiths (2)  brewers (2)  butchers (2)  championships (1)  community project (4)  cooks (1)  event announcements (1)  fan fiction (2)  getting started (3)  masons (1)  match report (1)  miners (2)  patch notes (2)  resource management (1)  strategy (6)  theory (2)  vassal (1)


Community Project OPD
Eoin Dornan (2020-10-27)

Guild Ball community project committees
Sam Bredeson (2020-09-22)

Introducing the community project steering group
Steve Cole (2020-09-02)

Guild Ball is dead. Long live Guild Ball!
Steve Cole (2020-08-21)

Event plays 'Nimble'
Skerolf Dickinger (2020-05-06)

Kubla Con Golden Horde Virtual Tournament
Michal Rudzki (2020-04-28)

Put the event back in coach!
Skerolf Dickinger (2020-04-19)

Season 4.3 patch notes
Sam Bredeson (2020-03-30)

Momentous Victory: Masons vs Cooks
Anthony Moore (2020-03-25)

WTC 2020 - Team USA update 1
Sam Bredeson (2020-02-29)

2020 Championship Series
Sam Bredeson (2020-02-17)

WTC 2020 - Team England
Jamie Perkins (2020-01-31)

WTC 2020 - Team USA
Sam Bredeson (2020-01-23)

WTC applications open!
Skerolf Dickinger (2020-01-22)

Understanding the Goal Kick
Jacob Frelinger (2019-12-13)

At Your Post [Range: enough!]
Skerolf Dickinger (2019-11-21)

A Well Oiled Machine [Global Aura]
Skerolf Dickinger (2019-11-09)

WTC Match Reports
Jamie Perkins (2019-10-05)

Momentous Victory: Miners vs Butchers
Anthony Moore (2019-09-09)

Season 4.2 patch notes
Sam Bredeson (2019-08-12)

The Ash Cup: Broken
Richard Bailey (2019-07-09)

Scouting Report: Brewers
Rhiannon Morrison (2019-05-28)

Guild Spotlight: Brewers
Rhiannon Morrison (2019-05-20)

Scouting Report: Blacksmiths
Rhiannon Morrison (2019-05-13)

Guild Spotlight: Blacksmiths
Rhiannon Morrison (2019-05-06)

Scouting Report: Alchemists
Rhiannon Morrison (2019-04-29)

Critical Moments or How to Win at Guild Ball
Henry Kay (2019-04-25)

Guild Spotlight: Alchemists
Rhiannon Morrison (2019-04-22)

Gettin' into Guild Ball
Alex Botts (2019-04-10)

Superior Strategy #1 - Activations
Evan Lewis (2019-04-05)

A Top-down Look at Turn One
Rhiannon Morrison (2019-04-03)

The Longshanks Shop
Sam Bredeson (2019-04-01)

Dice Intensity and the Miners
Alex Botts (2019-03-29)

The Ball and Victory Points as Resources
Jacob Mortenson (2019-03-27)

Introducing Tales from the Pitch
Sam Bredeson (2019-03-25)

The views and opinions expressed in Tales from the Pitch are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Longshanks.

Guild Ball and its associated names, images, and logos are property of Steamforged Games Ltd.
Everything else © 2017-2020 Windy City Game Lab